That’s what BofA Global Research argued in a new report sent to Rigzone, adding that companies and consumers tend not to notice it until they begin to lose it.
“But once supplies run out, economic activity comes to a standstill and little else matters,” BofA Global Research stated in the report.
“With low spare OPEC+ production capacity, low inventories, and the Russia and Ukraine conflict unfolding, energy security has become a key focus for markets,” BofA Global Research added in the report.
“Understandably, European leaders remain reluctant to block off Russian supplies, as the EU is already on the verge of recession,” the report continued.
In its latest report, BofA Global Research noted that spare production capacity thinned out on underinvestment while demand keeps “roaring back” from the Covid-19 lows.
“Inventories of many commodities have hit rock bottom, and petroleum product prices have spiked above their 2008 highs,” BofA Global Research stated in the report.
“Long-dated energy prices crept higher too. Yet we see two big differences between the 2022 and the 2008 spikes: (1) Spot rather than forward prices are leading oil higher today, and (2) the USD backdrop is very strong,” the report added.
“The implications for the oil market are straightforward. First, we believe that spiking energy prices should entice global E&Ps to drill again. Second, dollar strength should lead to faster demand destruction. In the short run, however, three sources of micro supply and demand inelasticity and a complex macro backdrop could exacerbate an oil price spike,” the report continued.
BofA Global Research’s report highlighted that the company has three Brent oil price spike scenarios to $130 per barrel, $150 per barrel and $200 per barrel. The report also outlined that these spike scenarios contemplate a pullback into 2023 to $75 per barrel, $95 per barrel, and $110 per barrel, respectively.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude stood at $113.23 per barrel. Prices have been volatile this month, closing at $100.85 per barrel on March 1, $127.98 per barrel on March 8, $98.02 per barrel on March 16, and $120.65 per barrel on March 25.
Oil soared past $100 per barrel for the first time in years last month as Russian forces escalated a conflict with Ukraine. Fighting is still ongoing at the time of writing, with one of Rigzone’s regular market watchers warning last week that the conflict “could last a while”.